The return of Donald Trump to the United States presidency has been met with polarizing reactions worldwide, depending on political leanings. But with this triumph comes a clear loser: global action on the climate crisis, which will still happen regardless of politics. The question is by how much.
Yet this has happened before; the rest of the world should have a better idea how to handle these impacts, although it would be nowhere near easy. It would also influence the short-term climate action of the Philippines in more ways than what it appears on the surface.
Higher costs?
An obvious expected impact of another Trump regime is that the push to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would slow down. The US remains the biggest historical polluter and emitted the second-highest GHGs in 2024, trailing only China.
Trump is expected to repeat his policies during his first run (2017-2021), such as promoting the expansion of the fossil fuel industry and weakening fuel efficiency standards for vehicles. He has also signed an executive order to withdraw his country again from the Paris Agreement, while his allies have also suggested leaving the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the treaties that guide the current climate negotiations.
However, the country’s emissions did not see a significant increase between 2017 and 2021, partially due to the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Renewable energy and electric vehicle technologies are also more advanced and economically viable than before, making it more difficult to reverse these trends even within his own country.
Nonetheless, the US’ decline in climate pollution is not enough to slow down global warming. Even if current plans of all countries are properly implemented, the world would still warm by 2.6°C, well beyond the global target. Given it currently contributes over 11% of GHG emissions, any pro-fossil fuel decision would mean more extreme impacts to hit the Philippines.
The likely biggest impact of Trump’s return to power would be the decrease in funding for climate-related solutions, especially at the global level. This would include the country’s contributions to global financing mechanisms such as the Green Climate Fund and the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, whose Board is currently hosted by the Philippines.
As the nation requires finance, technologies, and means for capacity-building from developed countries, the loss of support from the US means it would need to rely more on the likes of the European Union and Japan as well as loans from institutions such as the World Bank and Asian Development Bank to help address domestic climate impacts.
Through a lack of pollution reductions or lower funding, the ones most likely to suffer are those most vulnerable, such as indigenous peoples, women, and youth. The Philippine government, with inputs from nongovernment stakeholders, must develop an overall strategy on financing adaptation and mitigation actions that accounts for these impacts, which must be finalized before the next negotiations this November in Brazil.
More fake news?
A key issue to monitor during another Trump presidency is disinformation, which is arguably the biggest global risk to sustainable development. Media giants in the US are feeling the right-wing pressure as exemplified by the announcement of Meta ending its fact-checking program in the US under the guise of upholding free expression and easing up censorship.
Branding fact-checking as being politically biased is a dangerous precedent that could lead to even more fake news spreading across social media platforms like Facebook. While Meta’s decision only applies to the US for now, it may be a matter of time before it is implemented in big social media markets like the Philippines.
The country has earned a reputation in recent years for being a hotbed of disinformation, with most of the false content related to politics and COVID-19. However, a report published last June showed that fake news related to climate change and environment was actually encountered more frequently by Filipino social media users than the global average.
Forms of said disinformation range from articles outright denying the reality or the human-induced nature of the climate crisis to greenwashing and other misleading statements by corporations. The passage of a landmark bill in Congress, the climate accountability bill, would help prevent these acts from occurring.
More importantly, curbing disinformation is critical to enabling more Filipinos to better understand this crisis and its impacts. This is especially important not only for 2025, which is poised to be a milestone year for updating climate plans and policies, but also after the previous year that saw the country be exposed to record-setting extreme weather events only months apart.
Even with the changing dynamics of online media, disinformation will remain a problem. With the shift in consuming news and online content moving towards video-based modes and the decline of social media giants like X, false information is also likely to take different forms. In the Philippines alone, the part of the population that can easily distinguish trustworthy and untrustworthy news online is as low as 41%.
It is time for climate communication to become a bigger part of the Philippine agenda. It will take a multisectoral approach to fight disinformation and ensure that decision-making will be fed with accurate information, yet it is exactly what the government, the media, nongovernment organizations, and other stakeholders must undertake.
It cannot be denied that the climate crisis is a political issue. Yet the crisis itself does not care who is in power; it would continue to worsen, especially if the leaders do not care. For 2025 and beyond, the climate action must trump politics and hidden agendas. – Rappler.com
John Leo Algo is the national coordinator of Aksyon Klima Pilipinas and the deputy executive director for programs and campaigns of Living Laudato Si’ Philippines. He has been a climate and environment journalist since 2016.