MANILA, Philippines – The powerful Typhoon Julian (Krathon) passed near Sabtang Island, which is part of the Philippines’ northernmost province of Batanes, while maintaining its strength late Monday morning, September 30.
As of 10 am on Monday, the typhoon was over the coastal waters of Sabtang Island, moving north northwest at only 10 kilometers per hour (km/h).
It is expected to move over the Bashi Channel, which is between the Philippines and Taiwan, for the rest of Monday. Taiwan is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
So far, Julian still has maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h, while its gustiness is now up to 240 km/h from the previous 215 km/h.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a briefing past 11 am on Monday that Julian may intensify into a super typhoon on Monday afternoon or evening.
Under PAGASA’s classification, a super typhoon has maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h or above.
Since Julian might become a super typhoon, PAGASA is not ruling out the possibility of raising Signal No. 5, the highest tropical cyclone wind signal, likely in extreme Northern Luzon.
Signal Nos. 1 to 4 are raised for the following areas as of 11 am on Monday:
Signal No. 4
Typhoon-force winds (118 to 184 km/h), significant to severe threat to life and property
- Batanes
- northern part of Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Island, Calayan Island)
Signal No. 3
Storm-force winds (89 to 117 km/h), moderate to significant threat to life and property
- rest of Babuyan Islands
- northeastern part of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana)
Signal No. 2
Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property
- rest of mainland Cagayan
- Apayao
- Abra
- Kalinga
- Ilocos Norte
- northern and central parts of Ilocos Sur (Sinait, Cabugao)
Signal No. 1
Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property
- rest of Ilocos Sur
- La Union
- Pangasinan
- Ifugao
- Mountain Province
- Benguet
- Isabela
- Nueva Vizcaya
- Quirino
- Aurora
- northern and eastern parts of Nueva Ecija (Cuyapo, Rizal, Laur, Pantabangan, Science City of Muñoz, Gabaldon, Carranglan, San Jose City, Lupao, Talugtug, Bongabon, Llanera, Talavera, Palayan City, General Mamerto Natividad)
- Polillo Islands
PAGASA said areas under Signal No. 4 will feel “the peak of devastating typhoon-force winds” between Monday morning and afternoon.
The weather bureau added that “the wind flow coming towards the circulation” of the typhoon may bring strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:
Monday, September 30
- Aurora, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Romblon, Bicol
Tuesday, October 1
- Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan, eastern part of Isabela, Aurora, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Romblon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes
Wednesday, October 2
- Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Apayao, Abra
Meanwhile, the same areas remain under rainfall warnings, as Julian continues to trigger moderate to torrential rain in parts of Northern Luzon and Central Luzon. Floods and landslides are still likely.
Monday noon, September 30, to Tuesday noon, October 1
- Intense to torrential rain (above 200 millimeters): Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): mainland Cagayan, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Apayao, Abra, Benguet
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, rest of Cordillera Administrative Region
Tuesday noon, October 1, to Wednesday noon, October 2
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes, Babuyan Islands
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur
Wednesday noon, October 2, to Thursday noon, October 3
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Batanes, Babuyan Islands
On Monday, other areas in Northern Luzon not mentioned above may have rain with gusty winds from Julian.
The trough or extension of the typhoon can also trigger scattered rain and thunderstorms in Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and much of Central Luzon.
The rest of the country, not affected by Julian, will continue to have generally fair weather, with just localized thunderstorms.
Batanes, Cagayan, and Ilocos Norte still face a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surges in the next 48 hours.
For coastal waters, very high seas are seen in the seaboards of Batanes (waves up to 14 meters high) and the seaboards of Babuyan Islands (waves up to 10 meters high). Travel is risky for all vessels.
Very rough seas are expected in the northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte (waves up to 6 meters high) as well as the northern seaboard of mainland Cagayan and the remaining seaboard of Ilocos Norte (waves up to 5 meters high). Travel is risky for most types of vessels.
Moderate to rough seas will persist in the remaining seaboard of Cagayan and the seaboard of Ilocos Sur (waves up to 4 meters high), the seaboard of Isabela (waves up to 3.5 meters high), the seaboard of the northern part of Aurora and the remaining seaboard of the Ilocos Region (waves up to 3 meters high), and the remaining seaboard of Aurora and the northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands (waves up to 2.5 meters high). Small vessels should not venture out to sea.
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Julian is projected to begin recurving on Tuesday, October 1, then turn generally north northeast to northeast toward Taiwan on Wednesday, October 2. During this period, Julian may briefly leave PAR — since Taiwan is just along the PAR boundary — but the tropical cyclone will again enter.
After reentering PAR, Julian might make landfall in Taiwan’s southwestern coast on Wednesday. Prior to this landfall, it may already start weakening due to “interaction with the rugged terrain of Taiwan.”
Julian will cross Taiwan and emerge over the waters east of the country by Thursday morning, October 3. It may then head northeast toward the East China Sea and exit PAR on Thursday.
Julian is the Philippines’ 10th tropical cyclone for 2024 and sixth tropical cyclone for September alone.
The other tropical cyclone that PAGASA has been monitoring, the tropical storm with the international name Jebi, is not expected to enter PAR. – Rappler.com